Risk assessment - Probability

The most essential objectives of flood risk assessment are:

  • to get an idea of the amount of possible losses caused by flooding
  • to be able to reduce the damage potential to an acceptable level after quantifying risk
  • to be able to assess the efficiency of protection measures 
  • to support further decisions after or before a flood occurs
  • to understand and be aware of the complexities of the situation as best as possible

As risk is defined as probability times consequence these two aspects have to be considered when calculating risk: 

Probability is taken into account while hydrological and hydraulic simulation process. Calculating various scenarios, which are characterised by changing return periods, different probabilities of occurrence can be considered. Consequently, inundation maps can be generated which allow to depict the corresponding flow depths. This information is necessary later on while creating risk maps.

The damage probability can be calculated by integration of the annual damage potential. Damage potential assessment is composed of the following steps:

  • determination of hydrologic parameters (design flood)
  • hydraulic calculations
  • determination of flood affected areas
  • determination of damage potential and expected annual damage  

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Module
Flood Risk Assessment
Source

TUHH

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