Uncertainty analysis

Figure 1: Discharge-Probability relationship
Figure 2: Stage-Discharge relationship

Methodology

Uncertainty bounds

As a result of the knowledge uncertainty, there are uncertainty bounds (error bounds, or margins of error) of all the functions involved in risk assessment, e.g. the discharge-probability relationship (see figure 1) or the stage-discharge relationship (rating curve) (see figure 2).

 

Approaches applied in uncertainty analysis

In order to account for the knowledge uncertainty, it is necessary to perform an uncertainty analysis, which appears to be a complement to the traditional risk assessment procedure.

Approaches that can be applied in uncertainty analysis include:

  • deterministic analysis  (example)
  • interval analysis             (example)
  • probabilistic analysis    (example)
  • fuzzy set                           (example)

Assessment

Knowledge uncertainty can be reduced by an increase of knowledge.

However natural variability is inherent to the system and can not be reduced by more detailed information [*1].


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Module
Uncertainty analysis
Source

TUHH

References

*1 Apel et al. (2004)

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Further Information

Tutorial:

"Uncertainty analysis"