Flood Probability Assessment

Definition

Context

Flood probability is taken into account while hydrological and hydraulic simulation process. Calculating various scenarios, which are characterised by changing return periods, different probabilities of occurrence can be considered. Consequently, inundation maps can be generated which allow to depict the corresponding flow depths. This information is necessary later on while creating risk maps.

Climate change has been detected as the main uncertainty in determining the probability of flood. Meteorological models have been used to develop different scenarios of future climate condition. They show an increase of extreme weather conditions like droughts and heavy storm events. These scenarios have been used as input to hydrological models to determine the effect of climate change on the water balance in catchments and on the flood situation in rivers. Still research is at the beginning on that field. More refinement of modelling capabilities will be needed like the coupling of hydrological and meteorological models.

Methodology

The damage probability can be calculated by integration of the annual damage potential. Damage potential assessment is composed of the following steps:

  • determination of hydrologic parameters (design flood)
  • hydraulic calculations
  • determination of flood affected areas
  • determination of damage potential and expected annual damage

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Module
Flood risk mapping
Source

TUHH

References

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Downloads

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Further Information

Tutorial:

Flood Probability Assessment

Risk assessment - Probability