Flood Risk

Definition

Risk is - in contrast to danger - a function of the probability of an adverse effect and the severity of the caused effects. In a larger sense risk describes the possibility that human, material, economic or environmental losses can be caused by a potentially damaging event or phenomenon. The scientific approach defines risk as the probability and extend of damage due to a particular hazard. For the purpose of quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed by the notation:

Risk = Probability* Consequence  

or

Risk = Hazards * Vulnerability

where the probability is the likelihood of occurence of the consequence (e.g. damage, loss) or benefit.

These equations are a simplified form of the traditionally used risk formula.

 

Context

Flood related risk refers to the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between natural hazards and vulnerable conditions.

Harmful consequences can refer to death or injuries, losses on property or livelihoods, disruptions concerning the economic activity or environmental damages. Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability. Risk may arise from some present process or from some future event. It is often mapped to the probability of some event which is seen as undesirable. Usually the probability of that event and some assessment of its expected harm must be combined into a believable scenario (an outcome) which combines the set of risk, regret and reward probabilities into an expected value for that outcome [*1].


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Abstract terms

 

Module
Flood Risk Management
Source

TUHH

References

*1 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk

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